The explosions of the American and Israeli attack on Iran are far away from South Sudan, but their impact on our country must be considered. What happens in that war will impact the Muslim world, and our homeland is a predominantly Christian nation on the edge of the Islamic sphere. It is important for those who love South Sudan to look down the road and consider both the dangers and the opportunities that this attack can offer our homeland and our people.

From the outside, it is easy to see Islam as one thing, one unified worldview. The Islamic world is divided. Of these, the most widely known is between the Sunni and the Shi’a. As the predominant Shi’a state, Iran is something of an outcast among Muslim nations. In addition, they are Persian while their neighbors are Arab. No wonder the Gulf states and even Turkey have not opposed and have even supported the American/Israeli attacks.

However, the apparent surface equanimity of the Sunni world obscures the seething enmities that lie beneath. We in South Sudan need only to look to our northern neighbor to witness that antagonism. As the RSF and SAF battle (Muslim against Muslim), other nations are taking sides. Most dramatic is the “cold war” influence from the UAE on one side and Saudi Arabia on the other.

If the major Shi’a nation loses its power and becomes a satrap of Washington, the pressure for the various Sunni states to stay together will be significantly reduced. What are the implications of that change? First, in the immediate future will be a drop in the price of oil. Right now, oil prices are soaring because of the conflict, but once Iran is reduced, the price of oil will drop as the various Arab producers compete to pick up the customers that Iran will have lost. In the short run, this means that our remaining oil reserves will lose value. Worse, as other nations rush to produce more, the cost of producing and delivering from our wells will become more of an hinderance.

However, to focus on oil would be incredibly short-sighted. The real danger will be from the evangelist impulses of Islam as the various countries of the Gulf region decide to compete for influence in Sub-Saharan Africa. South Sudan has been comparatively lucky that the need to keep local peace in the region has precluded the push of Islamic militancy into our country. However, once that desire to limit competition among the Gulf states is reduced, can our homeland escape the terrorism that nations in West Africa have experienced?

How do we immunize our country from such attacks?

The same way that we accomplish anything for our country, by developing economic ties with the countries of the Islamic world. That means becoming a part of the Abraham Accords. This means becoming a major source of agricultural products for the drier regions to our north, especially our northeast. This means focusing on ties to Israel’s agricultural sector. It means using our great traditions and husbandry skills to produce meat for a hungry world. It may also mean using some regions of our country to produce the foods Iran has been producing, but for which its subsidence is now creating problems.

Taking the long view, the current chaos whirling around Iran should remind South Sudan not to get involved in the battles but to look down the road and see how we can take advantage of the changes to come. Can we use this moment to improve our relationships with the Sunni world, to reinforce our ties with Israel, to become part of the Abraham Accords, and to build on our potential as a food-producing nation? We have something the rest of the world doesn’t have. We have the Nile (White Nile), one of the longest rivers in the world, which flows through fresh water. We could have a water-based economy. How about that?

Yes, we can. However, only if we stop our own internal battles and focus on economic development. A pack of wild dogs may snarl, growl, and battle over the small waterbuck; the pride of lions brings down the giant eland. Let us use this time of growing competition between Islamic countries to reduce the conflicts within South Sudan, to heal the wounds, and to work towards a better future.

~Deng Mayik Atem

Publisher of Ramciel Magazine and currently

studying leadership and Ethics at

Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

He is reachable at azdengatem@hotmail.com